This article is the third in a series by Major General Saar Tzur on the role of robotics in modern warfare. Major General Tzur led the Israel Defense Forces Northern Corps and Maneuver Array during the Swords of Iron War. The first article in this series envisioned the future of ground robotics. The second article was How Ground-Based Robots Became Force Multipliers in the War ״Iron Swords״ .

“15 years from now, my guess is a third of the US military will be robotic”.  With this prediction, General Mark Milley, former US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, established the lighthouse guiding the defense industry. 

However, General Milley did not base his forecast just on technology development. He based it on what will be needed to win on the battlefield in a rapidly evolving geopolitical, demographic, and technological landscape. 

Industry, academia, and militaries are now rethinking how wars are won. At its most basic, battlefield victory is achieved through ground superiority leading to maneuver superiority. In other words, the army that controls the physical space - and therefore the ability to place soldiers, weapons, and other resources - is the victor. Air superiority and intelligence superiority are precursors to ground superiority. 

To dive deeper into how an army can achieve ground superiority, let’s first examine air and intelligence superiority. 

Defining Air Superiority

Air superiority is the condition in which one side controls airspace and prevents the enemy from using air power effectively. The controlling air force can carry out offensive, defensive, intelligence gathering, and movement operations without interference from the enemy. Air superiority is achieved by controlling the airspace and the ability to strike ground and maritime targets, thereby limiting the enemy's temporal and spatial capabilities. Achieving air superiority enables an army to operate its forces freely and in a focused manner.

 Defining Intelligence Superiority

Intelligence superiority describes the ability to make better decisions by obtaining, analyzing, and disseminating critical information more precisely and quickly than the enemy. Intelligence superiority is achieved by understanding the enemy’s actions, systems, and intentions, and by providing early warning of any attacks. Achieving intelligence superiority allows an army to outpace the adversary in response, develop targeted strategies, and stay ahead on the battlefield while minimizing risk. 

Ground Superiority

Ground superiority occurs when one side’s forces control the battlefield, maintaining both tactical and strategic advantages in battle management, troop movement, and area defense. It involves controlling key ground spaces and strategic points like transportation routes and key areas. Achieving ground superiority allows free operation of forces, preventing enemy offenses and enabling rapid, effective responses while limiting the enemy's control over the area.

Tactical Aspects of Ground Superiority

The tactical aspects of ground superiority reflect operational control over the terrain, even when it is sometimes necessary to control the subterranean dimension. This includes maneuver and assault capabilities in any environment at any time, defense capabilities that are unchallenged, and effective logistical support capabilities to ensure continuity and persistence.

Systemic Aspects of Ground Superiority

Systemic aspects of ground superiority include the underlying factors leading to superiority. Examples include cooperation between military branches, as well as technology innovation. Robotic capabilities are perhaps the single most important systemic driver of future ground superiority, as they combine all military branches to facilitate intelligence gathering, precision strikes, special operations, and logistical support.

Achieving Ground Superiority in Future Wars

Ground superiority requires a concerted effort across society to deliver autonomous systems combining the capabilities of humans and AI. Military robotics will advance toward General Milley’s prediction over the next 15 years along the following basic roadmap: 

1.     Stage One (Current) – Hybrid AI Systems  (Teleoperation+AI), Tactically Operated By Humans:

In this stage, soldiers remotely operate robots through direct control (MUMT). While requiring technical expertise and stable communication, this approach broadens operational capability, reshapes strategy, and streamlines tactics. The integration of ground robotics with soldiers not only enhances the soldiers' capabilities on the battlefield but also changes the entire strategy and tactics. It enables faster, more precise, and more effective missions. Leveraging both robotic and human strengths, forces become more adaptable, reduce risk to personnel, and gain a clear battlefield advantage.

2.     Stage Two  (Mid-Term) – Hybrid AI, Supervised & Guided By Humans:

In this stage, robots will be able to perform many tasks autonomously but with human supervision and input. AI will make limited operational decisions, such as navigation or target identification, but will require human approval for critical actions. This phase necessitates the development of advanced AI algorithms and machine learning to enable robots to understand and react to changing environments. 

3.     Stage Three (Long-Term Future) – Full Autonomy:

This is the most advanced stage, where robots will be capable of acting completely autonomously, including making critical decisions on the battlefield. They will be able to identify targets, assess risks, and carry out offensive and defensive actions without direct human intervention. This stage requires the development of advanced AI systems, integrated sensing capabilities (such as LIDAR sensors, radar, and night vision), and advanced communication systems.

The Path Forward

Military robotics will progress along the path of Hybrid AI: Human operators become increasingly efficient at deploying rapidly improving AI, thus delivering the best of human and AI capabilities. Delivering on the promise of Hybrid AI requires militaries to harness systemic aspects of superiority, such as deepening coordination across military branches and incentivizing technologists to focus on military applications. 

^Summary

While General Milley’s famous prediction focused on robotics, it in fact rests on a much deeper concept- militaries that achieve ground superiority in the future will have to harness robotic technology - which in turns requires militaries to rapidly evolve human capabilities and AI capabilities together, and across branches.  

The near future of ground superiority will be achieved by robotic tools with a mix of AI and humans - integrating both into a Hybrid AI concept that will evolve to enhance combat effectiveness and reduce casualties.